Date: 20-Feb-98 - 3:25 PM
Subject: RE: Foreign Content Question
From: PK
Hi Again Phil -
I don't know if anyone else is enjoying this discussion, but I am. I understand your points, but I think they fall short. I'll try to illustrate this as cogently as I can.
You state that because US & Canadian markets are highly correlated we will both be mostly looking outside of North America. If the correlation were 1 (I know your not saying that, but bear with me for a moment) then I would agree with you. In this case neither of us would have to hold both Canadian or US secutities -- one or the other would do fine. But the correlation is not 1. I'm looking down as I write at stats that show the correlation "r" between the TSE and the SP500 during March94 to Sept95 was .568. I think this this is lower than historically "normal", so lets say "r" is really .7. This coefficient suggests that about half the variability in TSE returns can be accounted for by SP500 returns (ie. .7 x .7 = 49%). With this "r" you would have to agree that an optimized portfolio would have to contain some US, some Canadian and some other securities.
Now the research you cited stated that for an American, the optimium portfolio had 35% foriegn content (thus implying 65% US content). A Canadian's optimal portfolio would also have to have 65% US content. This result has to be true because foreign content weightings are a consequence of other inputs in the optimization equation -- they are not a cause. The needed inputs are the expected returns of the securities (in this case US, Canadian and other) the variances of these returns, and the 3 pairs of covariances. These are the inputs that would have been used to arrive at the 65% US content figure. So, from a US citizens perspective, 65% US content implies a minority of foreign content, while from a Canadians point of view it implies a majority of foreign content is needed to optimize the risk/return characteristics of the portfolio.
BTW, your points made me reconsider my knee-jerk response that Canadians require alot of foreign content merely because we make up only 3% of the world's market cap -- this is not true at all. The reason we need a majority of our investments foreign is because of the optimization model you illustrated.
One other thing, the above discussion does not factor in the tax benefits of Canadian investing in Canadian (for example, the dividend tax factor). This government imposed reality also makes a difference.
Date: 23-Feb-98 - 10:42 AM
Subject: RE: Foreign Content Question
From: Phil
PK - Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Lots of food for thought there.
Date: 25-Feb-98 - 7:12 AM
Subject: RE: Foreign Content Question
From: hans mensch
There was talk in the financial post the other day that the budget might consider raising the foreign content in RRSP's. Has anyone heard anything about this? I think it is about time
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